"WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The number of people filing first-time claims for unemployment benefits climbed 13,000 in the latest week to 472,000, indicating continued weakness in the labor market."
The above is from Marketwwatch early today. I have commented almost weekly on the weekly jobless claims (new unemployment claims--layoffs--for the past six months. The AVERAGE weekly number for all of December was 455,000. The four-week average right now is 466,000. In other words, the labor market has WORSENED (slightly) since December--has NOT IMPROVED in 7 months (June already determined). Failure (Obama's) just does not get any worse than this. I say that not just because there has been NO improvement in 7 months, but because we have virtually bankrupted the country for NOTHING--for no results.
Let us go to my headline: dead on accurate, even though it is a parody of what Obama and the Democrats are saying, as well as of misleading mainstream media headlines. If you remember the corrupt Associated Press has been touting "steady, if slow, improvement" in the jobless claims number, even though the number has NOT IMPROVED for seven months. I think even the AP has given up. The 472,000 number is near the HIGH of weekly lost jobs over the past seven months--although the number has reached that high several times as the AP LIED about "steady improvement" that never existed in those seven months. The actual high over that period was around 490,000--never yet reaching 500,000 in those seven months, but never going as low as 440,000. The fluctuation range has been between mainly 450,000 and 475-480,000. The four-week average has generally been at or above the 455,000 for December. By definition, these are GROSS JOBS LOST.
Why is that important, in terms of my headline? Well, I saw a really stupid Democrat (redundancy, as to Democrats politicians?) try to defend the lack of improvement in net jobs. Last month almost no private jobs were created, and ADP just reported only 13,000 (statistically zero) additional jobs in the private sector for June. The only really substantial gain has been in CENSUS WORKERS--about to reverse. This Democratic Congressman tried to say that this small gain in private employment should not be criticized because it is NET, while Obama and the Democrats have increased GROSS jobs by 2.5 million. Hogwash. "Net is all that matters, because you may well be destroying--as Obama and the Democrats are--more jobs than you "create". GROSS is irrelevant.
But, for my headline, I took Obama and the Democrats at their word. I talk about GROSS jobs, and the headline is totally accurate on gross jobs. Notice how the gross jobs Obama has LOST in just the last seven months of no improvement exceed the total number he CLAIMS to have "created". Over the last 7 months alone, more tan 3 million gross jobs have been lost. And there has been NO IMPROVEMENT in the weekly number--actually a slight WORSENING. How much have we spent for NO NET GAIN in layoffs? Way too much. And talking about "ross jobs" is meaningless, unless you want to go with my headline. Somehow, I don't think Obama wants to go there.
Yes, the weekly jobless claims number is one of the more reliable guides right now to the real situation. That is because the CENSUS is distorting the overall jobs number that comes out tomorrow, and the unemployment rate may be distorted both by the Census and things like the expiration of extended unemployment benefits (if Congress stands by that). The corrupt mainstream media--hypocrites all--are going to concentrate on the private employment "gains" (where they are hoping for the best, even though the predicted 110,000 gain there appears impossible, given the ADP number) in tomorrow's government job numbers, even though the mainstream media was perfectly willing to talk about the "economy" "creating" hundreds of thousands of jobs when that was mostly CENSUS WORKERS. The overall net jobs figure is expected to DECLINE (loss of jobs) because of the end of temporary Census employment, but the mainstream media is going to try to dismiss that effect of Census workers this time (now that it is BAD for the figures). Note that the timing of the end of Census jobs is not that clear, which makes the overall jobs number really of uncertain meaning. The jobless claims number--seemingly unaffected by the Census--certainly true of this week's number--is therefore all the more significant.
Economists (the Stupidest People on Earth, along with the other people involved with the financial community) had "expected" a DROP in jobless claims this week. So much for economists, who are never right. Note also that last week's weekly number was AGAIN revised UPWARD (from 457,000 to 459,000--meaning the number rose "only" 13,000 this week from the revised number for last week. This revision UPWARD after the original headline number has become so regular as to suggest games being played. If the governments calculation of private jobs tomorrow is way out of line with ADP, I would expect that games were played there, since the ADP number is totally in line with the weekly jobless claims numbers.



