Every week, the number of new unemployment claims is REPORTED for the previous week (a measure of layoffs). Further, each week the number REPORTED the previous week is REVISED.
Let us review both the reported, and revised, numbers over the past 5 weeks: 482,000 (revised UP from 479,000); 488,000 (revised UP from 484,0000); 504,000 (revised UP from 500,000); 478,000 (revised UP from 473,000); and 472,000 (this week's REPORTED number--to be revised next week).
Now look at today's headline (as to the REPORTED 472,000): "Jobless claims (new unemployment claims) decline for second straight week."
Do you see the LIE here? It is an objective LIE (not a matter of opinion). On an apples to apples basis, the number STAYED THE SAME (472,0000 being statistically the SAME as 473,000). Indeed, even a "decline" of 6,000 (an apples to oranges comparison of last week's revised number this week's first reported number) is statistically insignificant. Further, the four--week AVERAGE increased last week--to 486,000--and hardly dropped this week (after the revision UPWARD for last week). You simply do not see the PATTERN of numbers reported by the media, who are CORRUPT (not to mention stupid). For example, if the REVISION is always in one direction (too rosy), does this not call into question the INTEGRITY of the first REPORTED numbers (especially when the media pretty much ignores the later revisions, except when the revision is too big to ignore, as with the large DOWNWARD revision in GDP growth).
The key point here is that the four-week average remains above 480,000. And the weekly number jumps around, since it is NOT a "concrete" number, but a "seasonally adjusted" number. That is in addition to chance fluctuations in major layoffs, and that weekly REVISION. Thus, variations in the weekly number mean little. The four-week AVERAGE for all of DECEMBER was 455,0000. Therefore, we are losing 30,000 EXTRA jobs every single week, ON AVERAGE, over those we were losing in December. Thus, we have not only NOT IMPROVED in NINE MONTHS in the labor market, but we have gotten WORSE.
Now the despicable AP--along with that LIE about the number "declining" two straight weeks--said that this week's "decline" (a lie) "signals" that employers are not instituting "widespread job cuts" because of the slowing economy. I want you to marvel at that truly marvelous example of CORRUPTION. Yes, it is "true", but only in the sense that if the number had kept RISING above 500,0000, we would be heading for a DEPRESSION. In other words, the evidence is that employers NEVER STOPPED JOB CUTS--and never really started hiring, although hat is not what this number measures--from December until now. We are now WORSE than December, and more consistently so than at any time since December. Further, over that entire nine month period, we have NEVER IMPROVED. For the despicable AP, the main "news" here is that we have not YET fallen completely off of the cliff, but are still barely holding onto the edge with our fingernails.
Don't you feel better that--even though Obama has FAILED to improve the job market over nine whole months from a BAD situation, and even though the job market is now actually getting worse--don't you feel better that we are not YET in a DEPRESSION? Well, if you work for the corrupt AP, I guess you feel better. Otherwise, you may worry that Obama and the Democrats have BANKRUPTED us for the specific purpose of improving the job market, and have FAILED.
Note on the first part of the headline: It is again a PARODY of Obama, and the ridiculous claims of the Obama Administration. If Obama is going to try to take credit for GROSS (not net) jobs "saved/created" (which does not even exist as a reported number), then Obama has to take the BLAME for GROSS jobs LOST. The government may well be "saving" jobs in some areas (where the government chooses), and COSTING jobs in other areas with their policies. Indeed, the evidence is that i what is happening.
This continues to be the ONLY pace you are getting this type of analysis of these numbers OVER TIME (really the only analysis that is worth anything). You will remember that for most of the past nine months the CORRUPT AP kept referring to a "steadily, but slowly IMPROVING" job market that simply did not exist. For that entire nine months, I have been correctly analyzing these numbers for you, and explaining how there has been NO IMPROVEMENT over this entire nine months. Now we are actually WORSE, although job cuts are not YET "widespread".
I am so glad the corrupt AP has instructed me on how to report this GOOD news to you. Otherwise, you might be depressed. You might get so depressed as to reelect Harry Reid--if you live in Nevada--on the theory that all is lost anyway. I would hate to be responsible for that disaster to the country. (I know--a relapse into my recurring sarcasm disease. I can't help it.)
P.S. If you aer thinking that these last two weeks at least show a lower level than we have been at in recent times, forget it. First, if the pattern holds, this week's REVISED number will be 476,000 or so. That is not a statistically significant difference from the 482,0000 of five weeks ago--much less from the 478,000 of last week. And what about six weeks ago and seven weeks ago? The revised numbers for those weeks were 460,0000 and 468,000. In other words, the numbers for the past two weeks have been WORSE than the numbers six and seven weeks ago, and little changed from the numbers over the past five weeks--except for that spike up to 504,0000. The difference is that since May we have been seeing this weekly jobless claims number around 460,000 as a LOW, and 480,000 as a HIGH. That was worse than December, but not significantly so. Now we are seeing--over the past five weeks--the LOW around 480,000--or maybe 475,0000--and the high around 500,000. As the four-week average shows, that is BAD NEWS. All of the "spin" in the world from the corrupt AP cannot change that.