The weekly number for NEW unemployment claims (for the previous week--a measure of layoffs) was reported Thursday at 479,000. That was a truly bad number. Let us review the weekly number of new unemployment claims for the last 7 weeks: 459,000, 475,0000, 457,000, 429,0000 (statistical glitch), 468,000, and 479,000. These are the REVISED numbers (each week's reported number is revised the next week), except for the 429,000 (where I never bothered to check the revised number, since that week was meaningless) and this week's 479,000 (which obviously can't be revised until next week).
What did I say in my article last week (accurate, as usual)? I said that it was proven that the 429,000 number of three weeks ago should simply be disregarded, as a false number produced by a statistical glitch in the "seasonal adjustment"" (specifically the change in procedure by GM--Government Motors--and perhaps a few other large companies, so that the "traditional" two week "shut down" in early July did not happen). That the 429,000 number was FALSE was proven because that number was clearly out of step with ALL recent numbers--indeed, out of step with the entire last 8 months. This week's 479,000 confirms that conclusion--in spades. As the listing of the numbers for the last 7 weeks shows, the 429,000 number is clearly inconsistent. I further told you that last week's REPORTED 457,0000 was subject to REVISION, and that most of the revisions in the past several months had been UPWARD by about 3,000. Well, you will note that last week's number was revised upward 3,000--to 460,0000--making it even more clear that last week's number was a BAD number (totally consistent with all of the recent BAD numbers, and totally inconsistent with the single "good"number in about the last 8 months).
So what is really going on here? I will again tell you, as almost no one else is.
The average number of new weekly unemployment claims (jobless claims) for all of DECEMBER was 455,000. As I have said for basically all of that time, there has been NO IMPROVEMENT in new unemployment claims (a measure of
layoffs) in the past 8 months. This represents a continuing FAILURE of Obama policy (a failure of ""focusing like a laser beam on jobs"). But now we can pretty much conclude--tentatively--that it is WORSE than that.
It now appears that we have DETERIORATED since December--although not yet dramatically. Since December, the weekly jobless claims number has fluctuated basically between 445,000 and 490,000. As I have repeatedly told you, that has represented NO IMPROVEMENT over all of that time. I have further, correctly, told you that any one week number means very little.
What matters is what is happening over time. Over time--and 8 months is a LONG time when we are in such a bad place--there has been NO IMPPROVEMENT in layoffs. But why do I say we cannot, if only tentatively, say that things are a little WORSE?
Well, look at that 457,000 number of more than a month ago. That was originally reported, before revision, as 453,0000. The corrupt liars at the Associated Press tried to spin that 453,000 number into good news by saying that it was the "lowest number" in more than two months--since early May.
Well, the upward revision to 457,000 took care of that LIE (always a lie, because the weekly numbers are not precise enough to make that claim). But look at what this does mean. For about three months, the weekly number has not fallen below 455,000--and the low has generally been right around 460,0000 (also the low for the last 3 weeks). Remember, 455,000 was the AVERAGE for ALL of December. We no longer seem to be able to even get below that number for a single week. And that has been true since pretty early in May. It was not really true from December to May--although the average generally did not fall much, if any below 455,000 (no improvement).
Are we not now WORSE--not because of this week alone, but looking at where we have been for about three months? You can, I believe, draw that conclusion. Oh, we are still not very substantially worse, but the "trend"is in the WRONG direction.
Now look at the last 7 weeks. Throw out the 429,000--which has been PROVEN, to a statistical certainty, to be a false number. The AVERAGE is above 465,000. And that has been pretty consistent over the past 3 months.
Absent an absolute miracle, the four week average--now being distorted by the false 429,0000 number--will suddenly jump next week ABOVE that same 465,000. That is because the 429,000 will be dropping out of the four week average next week, and no longer distorting that number. It is wildly unlikely that next week's number will be anywhere close to 429,000--although you would expect next week's number to DROP. You would expect that because that has been the trend (even disregarding the 429,000--as should be done). A big jump one week is usually followed by a drop the next week, although you would not expect the drop to go much below the 460,,000 level. What if there is no drop? What if the number stays at 480,000--near the top of the 8 month weekly range? Well, then we are in TROUBLE, aren't we? Right now, you can conclude that the labor situation has deteriorated SLIGHTLY this year, when it should have been improving steadily. If the four week average goes above 470,000, we may be staring at disaster--at FALLING OFF OF A CLIFF. Yes, we would have to go above 500,000 to really say that we have fallen off of that cliff. But you will notice how close we are to that number. Another rise next week (which I don't expect) like that of this week, and we are right there.
Q.E.D. Obama has FAILED, badly, on the economy. It would not be quite so bad if Obama and the Democrats had not effectively BANKRUPTED us on the promise that only massive government spending would "save" us. The problem is that it has not "saved" us, but has left us in a position that a real recovery is probably impossible. That is the worst of all possible words.
It is doubtful that better results would have justified the Obama/Democratic expansion of the Federal Government (substantially exceeding the spending, as measured by a percentage of GDP, of the Great Depression). When you place the country at extreme risk with deficit and debt, and still don't accomplish much of anything, that IS the worst of all possible worlds.
What about those "economists" and "analysts" so beloved of the mainstream media and Wall Street (The Stupidest People on Earth).? Well, those "economists" and "analysts" expected a small DROP in the jobless claims number this week. Nope. They are NEVER right--not about any substantial move. What is the significance of this? Well, you should not listen to them, and it means the mainstream media is stupid for paying any attention to what they say. But you knew already that the mainstream media is stupid and corrupt, and that these "predictions" are useless (except mine, which are usually accurate, although I am not stupid enough to try to predict the exact weekly jobless claims number). The real significance here is that these "economists" and "analysts" are the SAME people upon whom the Federal Government relies to CENTRALLY PLAN the economy (as we have moved away from free market theory, in spite of both experience and theory telling us that central planning inevitably FAILS). Don't you feel really good that fallible human beings are asserting that they should control our economy and your very lives, when they never seem to have a clue as to what is really going on in the economy?
You don't feel good? Well, neither do I. And this continual call for "more government", and more central planning by fallible people, makes me sicker every day. Luckily, I have been assured of a great health care system.......................Wait. They are centrally planning THAT, and putting it entirely in the hands of Federal bureaucrats. Oh, woe is me. I am DOOMED. And so are you. I am sure you feel better now.
P.S. Note on the headline. Yes, the headline continues to represent by PARODY--ridicule--of Obama continuing to claim that he has "saved/created" so many GROSS jobs. It is absolutely true that the jobless claims number indicates that we lost 479,0000 gross jobs last week. If Obama is going to try to claim "credit" for gross jobs "created" and "saved" (lol), I continue to believe he should accept blame for gross (instead of net) jobs lost.